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Thread: FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast

  1. #1
    Bad-ass Member guts's Avatar
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    FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Forecast

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/interacti...nate-forecast/


    As of 10/29/14...

    Republicans have a 63.4% chance of winning a majority.

    Democrats have a 36.6% chance of keeping the majority.

    I'm reading everywhere about how the Republicans are going to take a Senate majority. That said, I'm not sure why. The Congressional approval rating is dismal (13% as of this post). The Presidential approval rating is much better (41% as of the post). So what am I missing? Why are people leaning right when they seem to be happy leaning left? Is it just that the majority of states holding a Senate election this go round are historically Republican?

    On a side note, if the Republicans do win the Senate and keep the House, then this will probably turn sour before the 2016 presidential election. They'll probably try to get rid of Obamacare but I think it's too late for that. The damage is done. The cost of healthcare won't come down and revoking it at this point will only hurt those who benefit from it. That said, it should make for a pretty big market spike and increased hiring.

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    Holy shit I rule! Ike's Avatar
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    Even a Republican controlled Senate won't be able to overcome a veto on an Obamacare repeal.

  3. #3
    Bad-ass Member guts's Avatar
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    As of 11/03/14 (the day before the election)

    Republicans have a 75.5% chance of winning a majority.

    Democrats have a 24.5% chance of keeping the majority.

    There is a 22.0% chance Republicans will control 53 seats and Democrats will control 47 seats.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ike View Post
    Even a Republican controlled Senate won't be able to overcome a veto on an Obamacare repeal.
    Yea, the Republicans would be 14 votes short assuming people voted down the party lines and assuming they actually get the 53 seats. I bet they try though.

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